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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the award. However, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

However the current field is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and recent underperformers rising together. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still